0–20%
4 settled outcomes
Predicted16.1%
Observed0.0%
Error-16.1%
Prediction history
Settle results and measure model performance.
Mark final scores, convert 1X2 outcomes into right/wrong records, and start building the audit trail needed for calibration.
Fixtures
12
Settled
11
Pending
1
Right / Wrong
11 / 22
Hit rate
33.3%
Avg Brier
0.545
Avg Log Loss
0.927
Avg CLV
+0.0%
Selected picks
13
Settled selected
13
Selected W / L / Push
1 / 12 / 0
Selected hit rate / CLV
7.7% · +0.0%
Calibration
Predicted probability vs observed hit rate
Buckets use settled 1X2 outcomes only. Early samples are diagnostic, not proof of calibration.
20–40%
22 settled outcomes
Predicted30.0%
Observed31.8%
Error+1.8%
40–60%
5 settled outcomes
Predicted47.8%
Observed40.0%
Error-7.8%
60–80%
2 settled outcomes
Predicted67.7%
Observed100.0%
Error+32.3%
Backtesting breakdowns
Where the model is working or breaking
Split settled fixtures by league, model source, and data-quality acknowledgement before trusting aggregate performance.
By league
Spanish Segunda Division11 fixtures
Avg Brier0.545
Avg Log Loss0.927
Avg CLV+0.0%
By model source
historical11 fixtures
Avg Brier0.545
Avg Log Loss0.927
Avg CLV+0.0%
By data quality
thin-data acknowledged11 fixtures
Avg Brier0.545
Avg Log Loss0.927
Avg CLV+0.0%
Spanish Segunda Division · 31 May 2026 · 20:00 · Bet365 via Football-Data.co.uk
Cordoba vs Huesca
1–1
Brier 0.882 · Log Loss 1.386
Model snapshot: historical
xG 1.60–1.00 · ρ 0.00 · League 924 · Home venue 42 · Away venue 42
Saved with thin-data acknowledgement; use for MVP/demo validation only.
Cordoba
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 51.3% · Market 54.2% · Edge -2.9% · CLV unavailable
Draw
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 25.0% · Market 29.0% · Edge -4.0% · CLV unavailable
Huesca
Selected pick · 1X2 · Model 23.7% · Market 16.8% · Edge +6.9% · CLV unavailable
Spanish Segunda Division · 31 May 2026 · 20:00 · Bet365 via Football-Data.co.uk
Leganes vs Mirandes
1–0
Brier 0.613 · Log Loss 1.016
Model snapshot: historical
xG 1.13–1.11 · ρ 0.00 · League 924 · Home venue 21 · Away venue 42
Saved with thin-data acknowledgement; use for MVP/demo validation only.
Leganes
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 36.2% · Market 45.3% · Edge -9.1% · CLV unavailable
Draw
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 28.8% · Market 26.5% · Edge +2.3% · CLV unavailable
Mirandes
Selected pick · 1X2 · Model 35.0% · Market 28.1% · Edge +6.8% · CLV unavailable
Belgian Pro League · 31 May 2026 · 17:30 · Bet365 via Football-Data.co.uk
Gent vs Genk
Pending
Awaiting result
Model snapshot: historical
xG 1.41–1.74 · ρ -0.11 · League 623 · Home venue 40 · Away venue 40
Saved with thin-data acknowledgement; use for MVP/demo validation only.
Gent
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 30.2% · Market 32.3% · Edge -2.1% · CLV unavailable
Draw
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 25.6% · Market 25.0% · Edge +0.6% · CLV unavailable
Genk
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 44.1% · Market 42.6% · Edge +1.5% · CLV unavailable
Spanish Segunda Division · 31 May 2026 · 17:30 · Bet365 via Football-Data.co.uk
Almeria vs Valladolid
1–0
Brier 0.121 · Log Loss 0.333
Model snapshot: historical
xG 2.64–1.03 · ρ 0.00 · League 924 · Home venue 42 · Away venue 21
Saved with thin-data acknowledgement; use for MVP/demo validation only.
Almeria
Selected pick · 1X2 · Model 71.7% · Market 66.4% · Edge +5.3% · CLV unavailable
Draw
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 15.9% · Market 17.6% · Edge -1.7% · CLV unavailable
Valladolid
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 12.4% · Market 16.0% · Edge -3.6% · CLV unavailable
Spanish Segunda Division · 31 May 2026 · 17:30 · Bet365 via Football-Data.co.uk
Burgos vs Andorra
1–0
Brier 0.591 · Log Loss 0.987
Model snapshot: historical
xG 1.16–1.09 · ρ 0.00 · League 924 · Home venue 42 · Away venue 21
Saved with thin-data acknowledgement; use for MVP/demo validation only.
Burgos
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 37.3% · Market 62.0% · Edge -24.7% · CLV unavailable
Draw
Selected pick · 1X2 · Model 28.8% · Market 22.0% · Edge +6.8% · CLV unavailable
Andorra
Selected pick · 1X2 · Model 34.0% · Market 16.1% · Edge +17.9% · CLV unavailable
Spanish Segunda Division · 31 May 2026 · 17:30 · Bet365 via Football-Data.co.uk
Castellon vs Eibar
2–1
Brier 0.391 · Log Loss 0.713
Model snapshot: historical
xG 1.37–0.85 · ρ 0.00 · League 924 · Home venue 42 · Away venue 42
Saved with thin-data acknowledgement; use for MVP/demo validation only.
Castellon
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 49.0% · Market 61.1% · Edge -12.1% · CLV unavailable
Draw
Selected pick · 1X2 · Model 27.7% · Market 21.3% · Edge +6.4% · CLV unavailable
Eibar
Selected pick · 1X2 · Model 23.3% · Market 17.6% · Edge +5.7% · CLV unavailable
Spanish Segunda Division · 31 May 2026 · 17:30 · Bet365 via Football-Data.co.uk
La Coruna vs Las Palmas
1–2
Brier 0.608 · Log Loss 1.008
Model snapshot: historical
xG 1.16–1.18 · ρ 0.00 · League 924 · Home venue 42 · Away venue 21
Saved with thin-data acknowledgement; use for MVP/demo validation only.
La Coruna
Selected pick · 1X2 · Model 35.4% · Market 28.5% · Edge +6.9% · CLV unavailable
Draw
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 28.1% · Market 27.3% · Edge +0.8% · CLV unavailable
Las Palmas
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 36.5% · Market 44.2% · Edge -7.7% · CLV unavailable
Spanish Segunda Division · 31 May 2026 · 17:30 · Bet365 via Football-Data.co.uk
Santander vs Cadiz
4–1
Brier 0.197 · Log Loss 0.450
Model snapshot: historical
xG 2.31–1.13 · ρ 0.00 · League 924 · Home venue 42 · Away venue 42
Saved with thin-data acknowledgement; use for MVP/demo validation only.
Santander
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 63.8% · Market 70.5% · Edge -6.8% · CLV unavailable
Draw
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 18.9% · Market 19.3% · Edge -0.4% · CLV unavailable
Cadiz
Selected pick · 1X2 · Model 17.3% · Market 10.2% · Edge +7.1% · CLV unavailable
Spanish Segunda Division · 31 May 2026 · 17:30 · Bet365 via Football-Data.co.uk
Zaragoza vs Malaga
0–2
Brier 0.392 · Log Loss 0.716
Model snapshot: historical
xG 1.04–1.54 · ρ 0.00 · League 924 · Home venue 42 · Away venue 42
Saved with thin-data acknowledgement; use for MVP/demo validation only.
Zaragoza
Selected pick · 1X2 · Model 25.6% · Market 19.6% · Edge +6.0% · CLV unavailable
Draw
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 25.5% · Market 25.9% · Edge -0.4% · CLV unavailable
Malaga
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 48.9% · Market 54.5% · Edge -5.6% · CLV unavailable
Spanish Segunda Division · 30 May 2026 · 20:00 · Bet365 via Football-Data.co.uk
Granada vs Sp Gijon
1–2
Brier 0.756 · Log Loss 1.208
Model snapshot: historical
xG 1.52–1.20 · ρ 0.00 · League 916 · Home venue 42 · Away venue 42
Saved with thin-data acknowledgement; use for MVP/demo validation only.
Granada
Selected pick · 1X2 · Model 44.8% · Market 39.6% · Edge +5.2% · CLV unavailable
Draw
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 25.3% · Market 27.0% · Edge -1.7% · CLV unavailable
Sp Gijon
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 29.9% · Market 33.4% · Edge -3.5% · CLV unavailable
Spanish Segunda Division · 30 May 2026 · 15:15 · Bet365 via Football-Data.co.uk
Ceuta vs Albacete
1–0
Brier 0.573 · Log Loss 0.961
Model snapshot: historical
xG 1.20–1.11 · ρ 0.00 · League 916 · Home venue 21 · Away venue 42
Saved with thin-data acknowledgement; use for MVP/demo validation only.
Ceuta
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 38.3% · Market 40.6% · Edge -2.4% · CLV unavailable
Draw
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 28.3% · Market 29.2% · Edge -0.9% · CLV unavailable
Albacete
Selected pick · 1X2 · Model 33.5% · Market 30.2% · Edge +3.3% · CLV unavailable
Spanish Segunda Division · 30 May 2026 · 15:15 · Bet365 via Football-Data.co.uk
Sociedad B vs Cultural Leonesa
1–1
Brier 0.871 · Log Loss 1.416
Model snapshot: historical
xG 1.63–1.30 · ρ 0.00 · League 916 · Home venue 21 · Away venue 21
Saved with thin-data acknowledgement; use for MVP/demo validation only.
Sociedad B
Selected pick · 1X2 · Model 45.2% · Market 41.4% · Edge +3.9% · CLV unavailable
Draw
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 24.3% · Market 28.6% · Edge -4.4% · CLV unavailable
Cultural Leonesa
Audit outcome · 1X2 · Model 30.5% · Market 30.0% · Edge +0.5% · CLV unavailable